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Keller TX real estate market slowing

Home prices are softening across the DFW metroplex and I've heard concern that we may be headed toward the next housing crash.  That's a scary thought.  Perhaps it's made worse because most of us remember it.  But that's not where we are and I want to share an example with you to explain. 

Think back to your last long road trip.  You'd been on the highway going 75 mph (or more) and then a few miles from home you make your way out of the fast lane and on to the two lane service road with a speed limit of 45.  Do you remember that feeling that you were just crawling along.  You may even use that same service road every day and it never felt that slow.  That's exactly where we are in the housing market.  We've moved off the highway and gotten back on

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Every three years, the Federal Reserve conducts their Survey of Consumer Finances in which they collect data across all economic and social groups. Their latest survey data covers responses from 2013-2016.

The study revealed that the median net worth of a homeowner was $231,400 – a 15% increase since 2013. At the same time, the median net worth of renters decreased by 5% ($5,200 today compared to $5,500 in 2013).

These numbers reveal that the net worth of a homeowner is over 44 times greater than that of a renter.

There are many who see that statistic and point toward how broad the range of respondents are for the Federal Reserve survey. Their study includes all economic and social groups and also includes all age groups. The argument is

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Keller, Southlake and Trophy Club homes for sale
Mortgage interest rates have risen over a quarter of a point in just the first two months of 2018,  and Freddie Mac's US Economic and Housing Market Outlook is projecting a steady increase of interest rates throughout the year,  Many suggest rates could reach 5% by the end of the year. Now those of us who have been around a while recognize 5% interest rates are still a "gift", having seen rates much higher in the past.  Several of us who were in the market in the mid to late 1980's even remember 12-14% rates.  Still each increase, especially when combined with increasing housing prices, bodes poorly for homebuyers sitting on the fence.

What impact will rising rates have on home values?

Just as in years past, I'm starting to hear some potential home

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Selling your Keller or North Ft Worth Home?
Buyer Traffic is Even Stronger Now then Last Spring

Why the ALL CAPS and Exclamation points?  The North Ft. Worth, Keller and Trophy Club market has been on fire for home sellers for a few years now. But now that the final numbers for the 2017 area housing market are in, one thing is clear:  It's time to list your house.

How did we wrap up in 2017?

  • New-home sales were at their highest level in a decade.
  • Sales of previously owned homes were at their highest level in more than a decade.
  • Starts of single-family homes were their strongest in 10 years.  Plus new home permit applications grew to the fastest pace since August 2007.

And Bloomberg Business just reported: “America’s housing market is gearing up for a robust year ahead.

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Drop in Keller School District Home Values

58% of Homeowners See a Drop in Home Values Coming

Over half of US homeowners believe there will be a "housing bubble and price correction" between now and mid-2019.  That's according to a survey by ValueInsured, a company that sells insurance to homebuyers that reimburses housing downpayments should the market decline.  Now, I am not familiar with ValueInsured, and the point of this post is not to encourage you to check out their product.  But their "Modern Homebuyer Survey" sure caught my eye. I can certainly understand the concerns potential home buyers and owners have about the rise in housing prices, especially with a still fresh memory of the downturn less than a decade ago.  But this market has little in common with the forces of that

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Southlake Housing Market Bubble

Are We In Bubble Territory?

Home values continue to rise across Dallas/Ft. Worth, as well as the nation.  And home buyers in Keller, Southlake, Colleyville and surrounding areas are starting to ask if we're entering another housing bubble.  Fair question.  It's certainly one you'd want to know the answer to if you're considering plunging into the housing market.  Zillow just reported that:

“National home values have surpassed the peak hit during the housing bubble and are at their highest value in more than a decade.”


So if you buy a home today, you may well be paying the highest price the home has sold for...   But are we in bubble territory?  The Zillow comment is correct; the Dallas/Fort Worth area has passed previous peak home

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List your Keller home today

Supply and Demand is Shouting 'List Your Home Today!'

Do you remember much of what you learned in school about supply and demand?  You may not recall much of Economics 101, but this is one lesson you surely reconginze; when demand is greater than supply, the price will rise...

SUPPLY

A six month's supply of homes for sale in Keller, Southlake, Trophy Club is generally considered a "normal market" - not favoring sellers with rising properties or buyers with bargain prices.  This area, like most of the rest of the nation, is reporting about a 3.8 month supply of homes available according to The National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

 

DEMAND

Like supply, The National Association of Realtors also reports monthly on the numbers of

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Existing Homes Sales Hit Highest Levels

Highlights:

  • Sales of existing homes reached the highest pace in a decade at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million.
  • January marked the 59th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median home price rose 7.1% to $228,900.
  • NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun had this to say, “Much of the country saw robust sales activity last month as strong hiring and improved consumer confidence at the end of last year appear to have sparked considerable interest in buying a home."

Bottom Line

The inventory of homes for sale is tight in higher priced cities like Colleyville and Southlake.  And home buyers in the relatively more affordable areas like Roanoke, North Fort Worth and the Alliance area are finding it even more

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Keller Housing Market Prices to Rise

Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture


the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report  reports the inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market to be at a 3.6-month supply. That's now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year drops. We're seeing the same thing in our area. 

Typically,  a 6-month supply of homes for sale is considered a "normal market",  where home prices appreciate with inflation. When there is less than about a 6-month supply the demand for houses outpaces supply.  And you are probably aware of what happens when demand is higher then availability.  Prices go up.  

Here's the chart showing the US has been in a sellers' market for the

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Where Are Roanoke Home Prices Headed

Where Are the Home Prices Heading in the Next 5 Years?

Today, many real estate conversations center on home prices in area cities like Roanoke, Trophy Club and the Alliance area and where they may be headed. That is why I like the Home Price Expectation Survey.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Now keep in mind these are national numbers but it's projected home values will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in

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